What will happen to e-commerce in the next 5 years? It is difficult to predict in crisis conditions, but we can talk about some trends today.
A few conclusions from the presentation of Data Insight.
Average growth of e-commerce from 2019 to 2024 (CAGR) will be 33.2%
Market of sales of material goods via the Internet will grow from 1.7 to 7.2 trillion rubles
The natural growth of e-commerce would amount to 5.6 trillion rubles if the coronavirus did not intervene.
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Do not think that the coronavirus for e-commerce is a negative, in fact, the factors of the crisis will additionally bring, according to forecasts, 1.6 trillion rubles in online sales over 5 years.
Factors influencing the additional growth of online sales in 2020-2024:
New online shoppers: At least 10 million people invested in online purchases during self-isolation Isolation at home: 5-7 million people in Russia made more purchases than usual, spending more money each time The increase in the frequency of purchases in the months following isolation: even after the end of isolation, consumers in many cases will prefer online purchases instead of going to crowded stores and shopping centers The transition of some people to remote work: 5-7 million people in Russia will switch to remote work The growth of online sales of FMCG: due to accelerated growth of demand and supply (the latter is more important) in the period of isolation and consumer activity only after it:
- New online shoppers: At least 10 million people have invested in online shopping during their isolation.
- Home Isolation: Online shopping more than usual, spending more money each time
- Increased shopping frequency in the months following isolation: Even after isolation ends, consumers will in many cases prefer online shopping instead of going to crowded stores and shopping malls
- The transition of some people to remote work: 5-7 million people in Russia will switch to remote work
- FMCG Online Sales Growth: Accelerated Supply and Demand Growth (More Important) During and After Isolation
- Falling purchasing power and consumer activity: This is only true for the premium sales sector.